When I picked up the Jan. 27 issue of The Globe and Mail, I thought for a moment I was reading excerpts from my new book. On the front page, the headline story said the Prime Minister plans to increase the age for drawing Old Age Security benefits. Over in the business section, the top story was about Canada’s seniors getting “punch drunk” on debt.

I knew that these things were going to happen. I just didn’t expect them quite so soon.

Let’s focus on OAS. In his wide-ranging speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last month, Mr. Harper warned of the challenges that his and future governments will face due to the aging population. Demographic shifts will pose a threat “to the social programs and services that Canadians cherish,” he warned, saying that he intends to introduce a number of changes that will make the system sustainable going forward.

Although he did not mention OAS in particular, media reports immediately zeroed in on the program as a primary target. That speculation was almost certainly fuelled by background briefings from government staffers. It’s clear that we are being prepared for a major shift in government policy that would save billions of dollars by raising the age limit for drawing OAS.

Old Age Security is an obvious target because it is paid for directly from general revenue, unlike the Canada Pension Plan which is funded by invested contributions from employers and employees. In my book, Retirement’s Harsh New Realities, I point out that the cost of OAS payments increased more than 33 per cent between 2000 and 2007 to $31.8 billion. A recent actuarial report for the federal government projects another 32 per cent increase between 2010 and 2015 and predicts that if nothing is done the annual cost will hit $108 billion by 2030.

If Mr. Harper gets his way, that won’t happen. But get ready for a hell of a battle. We’ve already seen people take to the streets in Europe over government changes to what are perceived to be pension entitlements. We’re not likely to go that far in Canada, but the rhetoric will get quite vitriolic at times. Attempts by both the Mulroney and Chretien governments to change the system were both abandoned in the face of fierce opposition.

What is Ottawa likely to propose? First, they will move to increase the age at which people can start drawing OAS, probably to 67 from the current 65. The U.S. has already gone down that road on a phased basis with its Social Security system. Starting with people born in 1938 and later, the so-called “normal retirement age” gradually goes up until it reaches 67 for anyone born after 1959. That is likely just a first step. Already, there are proposals in Washington that the age should be increased to 68 for younger people. Ultimately, it may settle at 70.